In my heart, I see a lot of the history we’re making on the web in before and after terms. The clearest example of this type of thinking is how people refer to a time before and after the Fall of the Berlin Wall, representing the effective end of the Cold War. Especially in terms of technology, I think not so much about what is leading and bleeding edge as I do what consumers are going to adopt, and how that will affect business.

Then I attempt to build a cottage industry around that eventuality.

I saw it with Google toppling Yahoo, then the onset of RSS as an syndication-enabling technology, then with blogging, now with social media, in particular Facebook & Twitter, though I was reluctant to be as bold as I’d previously been. I see it now as I realize that I’ve outgrown what this blog was supposed to stand for and pioneer. I stay because I see how much it’s still needed and to pass on a successful, consistently revenue-generating machine to my business partners.

But as I grow into this new role that life is shaping around me, many things are becoming clear to me.

The first thing is that making prediction for the year to come is way too shortsighted if I’m serious about becoming a prominent thought leader. There are dozens of people with spot-on suggestions and vision about what’s going to be relevant this year – and if you look at previous years, they have excellent records for being correct. So I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with predicting trends in the short term and getting help mapping a path to get to realistic goals within that framework.

No, I’m just saying that to move economies, we need to be thinking 3 years ahead, 5 years, 10.

Granted, we have no idea what innovations will come along between now and even the next 2 years. But we DO know what we have now, and a handful of us can not only plot timelines for possible mass adoption/abandonment of some of these technologies, but inform possible uses for them that would otherwise not be predicted.

So this year, my focus is going to be on how the world will look – and what we’ll be looking back on – about ten years from now, and how that affects what we ought to be doing today.  Of course that conversation won’t always be relevant here, so I’ll be publishing some of that in a book, and on a new blog related to that book. Follow me on Twitter, or join the newsletter to hear more about that.

My first prediction: the walls that separate work life and home life are already falling, and will be gone by 2021, but in a joycentric way.

Do you have any far-reaching predictions?

Here’s a trick people fall for all the time. It’s so common the really scuzzy people have a name for it – it’s called “False Proof.”

It’s when they tell you something that is technically true, but completely irrelevant or immaterial. 

Like when a person shows you a check for $75,000 they made from affiliate sales. But they don’t tell you they spent $60,000 in advertising and have to share the rest with several JV partners. 

Or when a so-called search expert will say, “I’m number one out of  33 million results.” And you think, really? 33 MILLION?

Then you get their software, ebook, or system, and you find out that even though you’re also able to rank number one for a term that gets 33 million results, none of it sent you any sales, or leads – and really, not much traffic either.

If you don’t want to get hustled by this little trick, remember that proof has to be MEANINGFUL. 

If you’re in a traffic or search tool buying frenzy, paste this notice to your computer.

Unless The Keyword They’re So Proud of Ranking For Is Actually a Difficult Task Even for a Professional, They’re Not Teaching You Anything You Can’t Find Out On Your Own.

Unless the thousands of links they’re getting are Valuable links, it’s a waste of your time and money to get them. 

If the technique they’re showing you is unethical, remember you’re risking your entire business for a possible short term gain – is the possibliity of losing everything you built worth a few extra sales? 

If It Sounds Too Good To Be True, It’s Not Always Because You’re New to This. Most of The Time It Probably IS. Look for the Proof. Look for the Respect of Peers OUTSIDE THEIR INDUSTRY Who Don’t Benefit Monetarily From the Product’s Success. 

 

It’s fine to profit from a JV deal with a friend, I’m not saying it isn’t. I’ve done it and when I have, I’ve slept great. 

What’s NOT Okay is when the testimonials of friends are the Only testimonials they have. What did their peers think? What did their clients think? What do people who didn’t know them from Adam before they tried it think?

If a person selling you an SEO product or search consulting is a layperson, and they figured out how to get results better than the next guy, though not on a professional level, and they say so, that is completely above board.

But if they’re claiming to be a guru or expert in any way, and they’re using keyword rankings or number of links generated, or anything else to prove their results, make sure they stand up to scrutiny.

Here are some things to test for:

• The number of results doesn’t always tell you how comparatively difficult the keyword is to rank for. 
   
• If the keyword is more than 4 words long, a monkey could probably rank for it under the right conditions.
   
• Even if it is hard for a newbie, and the program will help you get to the next level of expertise, if the terms you would rank for are those that don’t send any traffic, or help you build up to terms that will send traffic, it’s a waste of time
   
• If it’s just one keyword, and not at least hundreds, if not thousands that they have gotten rankings for? They aren’t an expert. You do NOT really know what you’re doing with search until you have been able to maintain hundreds or thousands of rankings for a few years. You can get to number one by cheating in the short term – until they catch you and ban your site.  Luck or cheating doesn’t make you an expert.
   
• Is the top result they have in Google or Yahoo their own site? It’s not that it’s a bad thing to get to number one using Ezine Articles or Hub Pages. It’s that you don’t control the rankings, and you don’t need someone to teach you something fancy to get that ranking.Anyone can get a popular site to rank at the top for an article they’ve contributed – there are free articles for how to do this around the Net. That’s not some coveted secret worth $97. You just use your keywords in the title of the article you’re contributing. The real trick is getting that ranking to mean money for you – just because it’s technically listed higher for you, and a link on that page goes back to your site, doesn’t necessarily mean it will help your search rankings or that the person reading the article or watching the vide will go to your site. 

  It Can be a good technique. But knowing that doesn’t make you an expert.

Now, I won’t sit here and say that every expert trying to get you to buy a search or traffic related product is full of it. There’s a lot of good programs out there that work. But the instant you’re being promised outlandish results with a minimum of effort, it’s right that your BS radar should go off.

There are plenty of programs out there that work – to tell them apart, scrutinize your expert, and the results of the tool. You may be surprised at what you find.

I couldn’t let Friday night pass without giving you some of the best news I’ve heard in a while. (I’d say Saturday morning, but I know my entrepreneur friends – you’re up working just like me. You went out, you came home, you worked some more. Admit it.)

If you remember our last Site of the Day, you know that I don’t give these honors out lightly.

So why the Small Business Success Index? What about that site can help you build your business online?

The way I see it, knowing you’ll have a business to build this time next year helps dramatically. That seems like a pretty strong reason to care to me – and not just because much of my business is with small business owners. I’m an entrepreneur, after all.

Let’s look a little more closely at why this site is so important to those of us with smaller companies.

In a time when the pressure of the economy is being felt in ways most of us have never witnessed in our lifetimes, you know who’s not worried?

Us. Small business people.

When I first heard this I was skeptical . Then I came across proof.

And you know how I just love hard evidence and numbers — I’m always saying listen to people who make sense to you, test out their theories, and believe the results, the proof, the data, even about me.

I love it when the numbers agree with my gut reaction. Call it an extra ego stroke, but I get a buzz from knowing that

a- I was right, and
b- Other people agree with me.

Of coruse, that’s where the Small Business Success Index (SBSI) comes in. It’s hosted at GrowSmartBusiness.com, which is full of research put together by Network Solutions and the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

They say it better than I do, so I’ll quote from the page about SBSI’s survey of over 1000 small business owners:

The benchmark survey, which gathered data used to create the Small Business Success Index, was conducted in December 2008 and January 2009; a total of 1,000 small business owners were interviewed by phone. The Small Business Success Index found the following:

• Small businesses are succeeding despite the economic downturn.
• 69% of small businesses made a profit in 2008
• 7% of small businesses report that they broke even
• The majority (69%) of those who showed a profit in 2008 said it was equal to or better than the previous year
• 70% of small businesses expect their firms to still be operating in five years as opposed to being closed, sold or transferred, and of these, 66% expect to be bigger in size

How’s that for good news?

If you’re not seeing the connection, here it is: small business employs more people in this country than big business. We drive the economy. We’re quite a pragmatic group so we don’t cheer easily. Therefore, for things to be in this big of a mess and us to be optimistic? Bodes well for everyone.

Or as a post from the official Network Solutions blog put it:

According to the U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, “American small businesses are the bedrock of the U.S. economy. There are more than 25 million of them in the to the Census Bureau. They employ more than 58 million people, that is a greater number of jobs than big companies, and they create more new jobs each year than any other sector.”

Before I came across the SBSI I thought maybe this was just all the Small Business Owners that I knew.

My original theory was that more companies are starting to see that they can get better results from leveraging PR, online and offline publicity and marketing than just paying for search advertising, so I thought perhaps only marketing-related companies were getting a boost in new business from this change in climate.

Apparently, the news is better than I thought – small business is doing much better than I expected, across the board.

This hopeful data isn’t all the site has to offer, either. There are also lots of tools at their site to help small business owners, including their Small Business Survey, which will help you assess how well your business is doing competitively.

For more, go visit GrowSmartBusiness.com, and read Brent Leary’s Tale of Two Studies over at AMEX’s Open Forum. (Brent’s the co-author of Barack 2.0 with our friend David Bullock.)

He also interviewed the Network Solutions CEO, Roy Dunbar, at his Social CRM site.

photo credit: bitmask

I’m looking at what feeds to keep or delete in Google Reader and I discovered something.

I can pretty much tell what a site is about if I look at it in list view, which just lists the headlines in a feed. That’s helping me categorize un-categorized feeds. Which blog I’m writing in determines what I’ll prioritize reading that day, so being able to tell at a glance what a blog’s “voice” or “message” is strikes me as important.

You know how I think — would my blog pass that test?

And sadly, (though not surprisingly, given that I’ve been quiet in anticipation of my “retirement” next month), even if I take out our special Friday editions, I can only give a qualified yes to answer that question.

IF the person subscribing already knows a bit about traffic, they can tell my posts are on that topic from the headlines. If not, you can’t really tell.

Granted, I like to get creative with my titles. But headlines are everything. Am I losing the core audience this site was built for by leaning too much towards witticisms?

Could you gain more visitors by tweaking your titles?

Try this exercise on your own site and tell me what you found out.

There’s a great discussion going on being led by dot.lizard. Live text chat, video chat if you like, or just observe. I’m fireseek if you want to chat. And thanks to msaleem for telling us about it via twitter.

Maybe as its screensaver?

Jim Kukral said Microsoft got its cool back from this and that’s the truth. It’s undeniable. Hit play on the video below to see what I’m talking about.

How will that bring you traffic one day? Your online endeavors could be integrated into a person’s every day life. Think of the applications you could make. On a virtual coffee table, you could have virtual magazines, virtual newsletters, maybe one day 3D TV shows on YouTube sponsored by you. Keep an eye on this technology.

If you’ve been hanging around the web, you’ve probably already heard the announcement regarding the Google Analytics redesign. But have you seen the demo? You can find the video tour at the Google Analytics site. While you’re there, check out their free help center, the forums at Google Groups, and Conversion University, especially the Driving Traffic section.

Okay, newbie. Let’s learn the ropes. (I love it when Dr. Cox on Scrubs calls Zach Braff’s character a girl’s name in addition to “newbie” … back to reality…)

1. Create a Google Account

I don’t know if this is now true of all Google accounts, but when you sign up at Google Groups, you can create a google account without having to sign up for Gmail, Google’s email service. Just go to the Google Groups home page, and click on “Create an Account”. In the first box, you’ll see that you can use your current address to log in.

2. Explore
Find stuff that interests you by searching or browsing under “Explore groups” on the home page.

3. Join

Find a groovy group? Click the link that says “About This Group” in the right hand pane and learn the topics or guidelines before you sign up. Then you can click on “Join this Group”, which is normally right below that.

You can always opt out later if you find it’s not for you, and you can choose to follow via email, the web, or RSS. After a bit, watch for the “Suggested for You” area in Explore Groups to find groups similar to the ones you’re subscribed to already.

4. Create or Participate

I’ll give you a week to lurk then I’m pushing you out of the nest. Meet people! Post! Have fun. You can even make your own Google Group by clicking on the “Create Group” button.

Be sure to invite people from your newsletter, blog, or other communities that you host or run.

5. Help or Ask, Politely

Each group has its own level of etiquette. You can’t go wrong if you conduct yourself as if everything you say or do is being watched by your favorite client or the mentor you most admire. In other words, don’t do anything you wouldn’t want anyone to do if it was your forum.

Offer help when you can. Ask questions if you need help yourself. It sounds simple because it is. Jump in.

If you want to delve more deeply into Google Groups and how to use it, there’s an extensive guide in the Google help section.

Familiar with Google Groups but want to know what’s new? Go on the tour.

Want to know how to increase your traffic with Google Groups? Stay tuned, Samantha.

Edit 5. 28: Thanks to the Carnival of Entrepreneurs for including this entry. Visit more posts in the Carnival of Entrepreneurs at Start-up Spark.

Google Groups are kind of a cross-breed between public forums, what used to be newsgroups or Usenet groups , and a discussion mailing list. With an upgrade freshly out of beta last night, the new features seem like they will help facilitate communication between its users even more.

These enhancements include:

• File Sharing
• Member Profiles
• Collaborative Web Pages
• Customization of a Group’s look and feel

Google Groups can be public or private, moderated or not. But why would you use Google Groups instead of creating a regular forum on your own site’s servers?

The most obvious reason is that the fish are already there. What I mean by that is that to have a forum at your own site, you’ll have to seed it with members, and then get the group to grow. It can be an intensive endeavor, one that requires time and resources a full time business owner may not as readily have.

But when you start a Google Group, you’re casting your line into an ocean full of marine life, so to speak, rather than attempting to get them to come live in your pond of their own volition. Millions of people already use Google Groups, some migrated from Usenet groups, and many from daily searches at Google.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that you can’t still have your own very successful forum at your own site as well. Some discussions are better in a closed community with fewer distractions. Anyway, who says you can’t have both? Or that you can’t participate in Google Groups to cultivate or show off your own subject-matter expertise?

On the other hand, Google Groups is free, and you can participate via the web or over email.

That nifty new facelift doesn’t hurt its case either.

If you’re still not sure how Google Groups would benefit you, get into the Google Group groove with some free tips for both the new and advanced Google fan.

… of the Year, is now online.

You have no idea how close it came to being the last one ever…

Whew!

In this Christmas Issue:

Five Seasons Freebies
Four Traffic Weapons
Three Blogger’s Resources
Two On-Going Contest
and a Funny Chirstmas Video of Me!

Can’t wait to see you there!

Well. If you’re a blogger anyway…. it means yet another way you can increase your blog traffic is by covering the news.

No, it’s not a new concept – I’ve been harping on that for at least two years, as all you regulars know. What’s new is that Technorati is helping blogs get featured on AP News sites.

After having the pleasure of witnessing a friend of mine hit the Associated Press newswire last year, it’s great to see that Technorati is going to be partnering with Associated Press member sites. That means that the next time a friend of mine is covered by AP, I can blog about it and possibly appear in one of the links to the stories.

From Technorati’s Weblog Post:

The new service will bring blogger commentary about AP news stories to communities large and small throughout the USA, giving bloggers a voice in trusted local papers throughout the nation. For many news readers, this will be their first exposure to the blogosphere with national, international, business and sports news presented along side links to blogger commentary and perspective.

So what does that mean to you? If you have any reason to cover stories that pop up on the AP wire, then sugar… dumpling … blog about them. Link naturally, and not just because of the traffic – it’s an extra boost, not the whole point.

What I’m really hoping is that this bold venture will help build bridges between bloggers and reporters. In some trades and local dailies, you can almost feel the animosity towards bloggers coming off the page. I just had a conversation about this with the folks over at Real Estate Blog Sites, who set up MyST Blog sites specifcally for the high end real estate industry. It seems that in some online newspapers, you still see a blog backlash – some play down their effectiveness in generating leads, others warn big companies to fear the blogosphere instead of reach out to it.

Anyway. Before I dive headlong into that tangent, just though you should know.